I just received this from Rob Hewitt. I, like many people I talk to, are not too thrilled by our choice of candidates. This goes for both Republicans and democrats that I speak with. To me, I dislike Rudy's 2nd amendment record and his donations to Planned Parenthood disgust me. I have personally heard him say that he favors separate gun laws for rural and urban areas.
Frontrunner Giuliani Leading Among Most Republican Subgroups
Thompson, Giuliani running even in southern states
By Jeffrey M. Jones
PRINCETON, NJ -- Rudy Giuliani has led the field of Republican candidates for the 2008 presidential nomination in every Gallup Poll since January. In the most recent nationwide poll of Republicans, 30% name Giuliani as their first choice for the party's nomination, giving him an eight-point lead over second place Fred Thompson who registers 22% support. John McCain is in third place at 18% and Mitt Romney is in fourth at 7%, with the five other announced candidates all polling at 4% or less.
While nowhere near as dominant as the Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton, Giuliani, like Clinton, leads among most subgroups within his party [see Related Items]. In fact, Giuliani does no worse than tie for first in each of a number of key Republican demographic groups. But some of Giuliani's weakest showings are among subgroups of the party not likely to embrace his current or past pro-choice, pro-gay rights, and pro-gun control positions -- Southerners, weekly churchgoers, Protestants, and men -- in particular married men.
These insights are drawn from an aggregation of 1,690 interviews with Republicans and Republican-leaning independents taken from four Gallup surveys conducted in August and September. The analysis is primarily limited to the relative standings of the top four Republican candidates, since the minor candidates' support tends to show little meaningful variation by subgroup.
Republicans are roughly twice as likely to describe their political views as "conservative" than as either "moderate" or "liberal." Giuliani has a lead among moderate and liberal Republicans as well as conservative Republicans, but his lead is much larger among the former group (21 points vs. 7 points). Thompson and McCain tie as the second place candidate among moderate and liberal Republicans, but Thompson is a clear second among the much larger conservative group.
Republican Nomination Preference by Ideological Self-Identification
Moderate/Liberal Republicans N=544
Conservative Republicans N=1,131
For more than two decades, the Republican Party has been closely aligned with conservative religious individuals and groups. There has been considerable media speculation that religious Republicans are not overly enthusiastic about any of the leading Republican candidates for the 2008 nomination, given some of their past positions on moral values issues. While their ballot choice cannot speak to that directly, the data do show that Giuliani does not fare as well among religious Republicans as he does among other constituencies within the party. Specifically, Giuliani (27%) and Thompson (24%) are running about neck-and-neck among the most religious Republicans -- those who attend church on a weekly basis. McCain is third among this key group, while Romney and former Arkansas Gov. and ordained minister Mike Huckabee essentially tie for fourth.
Among less religious Republicans, Giuliani is the clear leader, with double-digit leads.
Republican Nomination Preference by Frequency of Church Attendance
Attend Church Weekly N=689
Attend Monthly N=396
Seldom/Never Attend N=577
Historically, every Republican nominee for president to this point has been of a Protestant faith. So it is notable that the group of leading contenders for next year's nomination includes a Catholic (Giuliani) and a member of the Church of Latter Day Saints (Romney). Giuliani leads the field by a wide 26-point margin among Republican Catholics. But he has a much smaller 5-point lead among Republican Protestants (including those who identify as "Christian" but do not mention a specific Christian denomination).
Romney is supported by 8% of Republican Protestants, not appreciably worse than his showing among Republicans more generally. That is notable because Gallup research has shown that a majority of Protestants have a negative view of the Mormon religion.
Republican Nomination Preference by Religious Affiliation
Much of the Republican Party's success in electoral politics can be attributed to its strength in the South. Thus, it is important for a Republican presidential candidate to demonstrate an appeal to Southerners. Giuliani and Thompson have been running even among Republicans living in the South, with McCain and in particular Romney trailing by significant margins there.
As is usually the case in nomination campaigns, there is a strong element of a "native son" effect in support for the various candidates. Thompson (the South), Giuliani (the Northeast), and McCain (the West) all have the greatest support in their home regions. Romney's best showings are in the Northeast -- the home region for the former Massachusetts governor -- and in the West, which has a large population of Mormons and where he is known for his leadership of the 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, Utah
Republican Nomination Preference by Region of the Country